COVID-19 (Models, Happenings and Expectations....Updated 6/8/20)
Its been a few weeks since last update as things have taken on a life of their own and this on going deep dive is withering since it is of minimal relevance now.
Now all we can do is sit back and wait to see want happens and then try to divine what was real.
Things have also taken on a bizarre twist as people were arrested a few weeks ago for not social distancing on beaches, and "if not for self than for others", was the chant and guilt trip, but today we are protesting in groups of thousands with masks mostly to conceal identity while crimes are committed and without much as a peep for the neo-royals running the show.
So, the last few weeks have been one grand experiment and a nightmare for those who had been predicting doomsday if we didn't come to heel. The doomsday folks who have been predicting that we can't have sporting events or go the movies lest we all die, and who have caused unemployment nearing depression levels, while ruining small businesses and taking away property rights, will now have some explaining to do if doomsday doesn't in fact occur. For two weeks we broke every rule that we were forced to adhere to previously, lest we all die or at least be arrested and now if the lockdown was correct, if it was justified, we should see an enormous spike in cases followed by fatalities and perhaps regression into new lockdowns.
IF NOT... WE MUST ASK IF LOCKDOWNS WERE NECESSARY AT ALL?
We expect C-19 will fade into the dust bin of apocalyptic prognostications like so many Nostradamus-like predictions of the past. Just enough vagueness in it all to think "well.... maybe". And when the fighting over all the numbers is done, and who had what and what did they really die from and how do we count it all, we are confident that we will see that we let the fear mongers run the world for a few months and it nearly killed us. Hopefully we learn from it and restrict the powers of the state going forward.
And that is about all that is worth saying at this phase of the C-19 Pandemic of 2020.
As a matter of public service the following sites are provided....
CDC info on this (2019-2020) flu season:
IMHE Projections for USA COVID-19:
Article on the Imperial College of London that started the 500K dead prediction for the UK and millions dead in the USA which has been backed off:
Historical look at Viruses:
CDC info on H1N1 (from 2009/2010):