COVID-19 (Models, Happenings and Expectations....Updated 7/8/20)
A month has passed since last update.
Advancement to full re-opening has ground to trickle, even though it should not be the case.
As testing across the country has skyrocketed we have found many more cases. Duh? Test more. Find more.
We are now testing more than 500K people per day and finding about 6-7% of those tested have the Covid. This is what we have said from the beginning. The virus has infected many more people than we knew and know now.
But A Funny Thing Happened On The Way To The Forum... the death rate, or lethality has plummeted.
We have dropped from 2000 Covid attributed deaths per day to less than 250 deaths per day, even as cases increase.
This was again, obviously going to happen, and what we have been saying about increasing the denominator in the ratio of deaths divided by cases. We can count the deaths and once we start increasing the number of total cases we will realize that the threat was no where near what we were told.
What do we know today?
Below the age of 24 the risk is less than the seasonal flu. You reach seasonal flu mortality when you get to about 54 years old. Above 65 and the mortality rate is higher than seasonal flu.
With complicating medical conditions, lethality is higher.
Main take away? About 35% of those dying from Covid are over 85 and another 25% are 75-84 years old.
That means 60% of those dying from Covid are over 74 years old. and if we include the next bracket of age 65-74 which adds another 18%, we find that almost 80% of all deaths occur at age 65 and older. Which looks familiar.
Most school teachers are 55 years old or younger. Not all but most.
And the risk to school age children is near zero.
Clearly, the elderly are at risk and should take proper precautions. But the conclusion that the rest of society, including our schools, should get back to full operation, is rational.
Almost all of Europe has already gone back to near full opening status, and some countries stayed more than 90% open the entire time.
It really is time to start thinking about what we are doing and why?
You cannot remove all risk from life and continued forced limits on operations of sectors of the society will produce permanent damage if they haven't already.
Doomsday has NOT befallen us so we must ask if lockdowns were necessary at all?
Which means we must ask if social distancing and masks are necessary?
We scared ourselves.
But from the vantage point of July 8, 2020 we can reasonably expect C-19 will fade into the dust bin of apocalyptic prognostications like so many Nostradamus-like predictions of the past.
People have died and every death is a tragedy in a real family somewhere.
But, when the fighting over all the numbers is done, and who had what and what did they really die from and how do we count it all, we will see that we let the fear mongers run the world for a few months, it nearly killed us, and then they didn't know how to unwind the calamity they wrought.
Hopefully we learn from this and restrict the powers of the state going forward.
And that is about all that is worth saying at this phase of the C-19 Pandemic of 2020.
As a matter of public service the following sites are provided....
CDC info on this (2019-2020) flu season:
IMHE Projections for USA COVID-19:
Historical look at Viruses:
CDC info on H1N1 (from 2009/2010):